Explained: What is happening in Venezuela?

In January 2026, Venezuela is experiencing an unprecedented political upheaval following a large-scale U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

1. Capture of Nicolás Maduro

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a surprise military assault on Caracas. U.S. special forces breached Maduro’s fortified compound, capturing him and First Lady Cilia Flores. They were transported to New York City, where they face federal charges including narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons offences. Maduro is expected to make his first court appearance today, Monday, January 5, 2026.

2. Leadership Crisis and U.S. Intervention

Acting Presidency: Following Maduro’s removal, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was appointed acting president for 90 days by a Supreme Court ruling. While she has denounced Maduro’s capture as a “cowardly kidnapping,” the Venezuelan military has officially recognised her leadership to maintain stability.
U.S. Control: President Donald Trump has stated that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela temporarily until a “safe and proper” transition of power occurs. He has specifically targeted Venezuela’s oil reserves—the largest in the world—announcing plans for U.S. companies to rebuild the infrastructure and manage production.

3. International Reactions

Condemnation: Allies such as Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba have condemned the U.S. action as “armed aggression” and a violation of national sovereignty. Regional bodies and neighbouring countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have also rejected the idea of the U.S. “running” the country.
Support: Countries such as Argentina and the United Kingdom have expressed support or noted they would “shed no tears” for the end of the Maduro regime.

4. Domestic Conditions

Social State: The capital, Caracas, remains tense but relatively calm as residents grapple with the sudden change. There have been reports of both celebrations and anxiety among the population.
Ongoing Humanitarian Crisis: Prior to this escalation, Venezuela was already suffering from a decade-long collapse marked by hyperinflation and severe shortages of food and medicine. More than 7.9 million people have fled the country since 2014.

Summary of Key 2026 Events

Date	Event
Jan 3, 2026	U.S. launches airstrikes and ground raids in Caracas; Maduro and Flores captured.
Jan 4, 2026	Delcy Rodríguez is recognised as acting president; Trump threatens her with “a big price” if she does not comply.
Jan 5, 2026	Maduro is scheduled for arraignment in a New York federal court.

About the Country Venezuela

Venezuela is a northern South American nation of approximately 31.3 million people. It is a land of extreme contrasts, possessing the world’s largest oil reserves alongside one of the most severe economic and humanitarian crises of the 21st century.

Geography and Nature

Diverse Terrain: The landscape includes the Andes Mountains in the northwest, the vast Llanos (central plains), and the ancient Guiana Highlands in the southeast.
Natural Wonders: It is home to Angel Falls, the world’s highest waterfall, and Lake Maracaibo, the largest natural lake in South America.
Biodiversity: Venezuela is one of the world’s most “megadiverse” countries, hosting thousands of species of exotic wildlife like jaguars, anacondas, and spider monkeys.

Economy and Oil

The Oil Giant: Venezuela holds roughly 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia. However, most is “extra-heavy” crude, which is expensive to refine and requires advanced technology.
Economic Collapse: Since 2013, the economy has shrunk by approximately 80% due to mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions.
Current State: As of early 2026, the country is in a state of flux following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, with the U.S. aiming to involve American energy firms in rebuilding the “badly broken” oil infrastructure.

People and Culture

Demographics: The population is highly urbanised (nearly 90%) and racially mixed, primarily of Spanish, African, and Indigenous descent.
Language & Religion: Spanish is the official language, though over 25 Indigenous languages are recognised. Approximately 96% of the population is Roman Catholic.
Migration Crisis: A historic exodus has seen more than 7.9 million people flee the country since 2014 to escape hyperinflation, food shortages, and political repression.

Current Political Status (January 2026)

Interim Leadership: Following the capture of Maduro on January 3, 2026, Delcy Rodríguez was appointed interim president by the Supreme Court.
U.S. Presence: The U.S. maintains a significant military and political presence in Caracas, with President Donald Trump warning of a “second strike” if the interim government does not cooperate with U.S. transition plans.

What is expected for Venezuela in the future?

Venezuela stands at a historic crossroads following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3. The future is defined by immediate political uncertainty, a potential U.S.-led economic overhaul, and a precarious leadership transition.

1. Political Leadership and Transition

Acting Presidency: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed the role of acting president for an initial 90-day period. While she initially condemned Maduro’s capture, she has recently shifted toward an “agenda of cooperation” with the U.S. to ensure “lasting community coexistence.
U.S. Custodianship: President Trump has stated the U.S. will “run the country” until a “safe and proper” transition is achieved. This involves a “carrot-and-stick” approach, maintaining a heavy military presence offshore to ensure the interim government complies with U.S. interests.
Role of the Opposition: Opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for a transition to a democratic government. However, any future president will have to navigate a National Assembly currently dominated by Maduro’s supporters.

2. Economic Reconstruction and Oil

U.S. Investment: The U.S. intends to involve major American oil companies to “rebuild the badly broken” infrastructure of Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves.
Production Forecasts: Analysts predict that with a successful transition and the lifting of sanctions, Venezuela’s oil production—currently near 900,000 barrels per day—could eventually return to historical highs of 3 million barrels per day in the medium to long term.
Currency Stabilisation: To combat hyperinflation, experts have proposed establishing a currency board to peg the Venezuelan Bolívar to the U.S. dollar, which could provide much-needed stability to the economy.

3. Immediate Risks and Challenges

Internal Unrest: The risk of a “hybrid conflict” remains, as pro-Maduro paramilitary groups (colectivos) and elements of the military may resist U.S. influence.
Hyperinflation: Despite some stabilisation in 2025, independent estimates for 2026 inflation still hover as high as 600-682%, with a large majority of the population surviving on less than $50 a month.
International Friction: The U.S. intervention has drawn sharp condemnation from Russia, China, and Iran, potentially turning Venezuela into a theatre for broader geopolitical tension.

2026 Economic Projections

Metric	2026 Forecast
GDP Growth	Projected at 7% (official) or -3% to 4.2% (international estimates)
Inflation Rate	Estimated average of 682.1%
Oil Production	Projected to remain flat at 900,000 bpd in the short term
Exchange Rate	Potentially reaching 450 bolívares per dollar.

Way Forward for Venezuela and its Polity

As of January 5, 2026, the way forward for Venezuela is defined by an experimental “custodianship” led by the United States following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. This transition involves three key pillars:

1. Political Transition and "Cooperative" Leadership

Interim Government: Delcy Rodríguez is serving as acting president for a 90-day on a “cooperative agenda” with Washington to ensure national stability term. While she initially resisted, she has recently signalled a willingness to work.
U.S. Custodianship: President Trump has stated the U.S. will “run the country” through an interim group until a transition to a “safe and proper” government is finalised.
Potential Elections: A primary goal of the transitional period is to eventually hold free and transparent elections, potentially paving the way for recognised opposition figures like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González.

2. Economic and Oil Revitalisation

$100 Billion Reconstruction: Rebuilding the “badly broken” oil sector is the immediate economic priority. Experts estimate this will require approximately $10 billion in annual investment over the next decade to return to peak production levels.
U.S. Corporate Involvement: Major firms like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips are expected to lead this effort, fronting the costs in exchange for eventual reimbursement and debt recovery from past expropriations.
Monetary Stabilisation: Future plans include drastic macroeconomic reforms, such as pegging the bolívar to the U.S. dollar, to curb hyperinflation and restore household purchasing power.

3. Immediate Security and Humanitarian Goals

Ending the Blockade: The U.S. oil blockade remains in effect but may be eased as “leverage” for cooperation. Redirecting oil exports from shadow fleets (mainly to China) to the U.S. Gulf Coast could triple annual revenues in the near term.
Neutralising Spoilers: U.S. forces and the Venezuelan military are tasked with maintaining order and preventing armed resistance from pro-Maduro colectivos (paramilitary groups).
Humanitarian Relief: Immediate efforts focus on restoring basic services—food, medicine, and electricity—to the 7.6 million Venezuelans still in need of assistance, which is seen as critical to slowing the massive exodus of refugees.

Disclaimer:

The above information and views are taken from various news platforms such as The Hindu and The Indian Express

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Explained: What is happening in Venezuela?

Explained: What is happening in Venezuela?

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